Financial Crisis

[Shadows]

We all know Barrack Obama signed a stimulus package bill.


In your opinion, do you think the 'financial crisis' will get worse or improve in Short terms time?

Then state why long term?

 

[Jokerman]

It will get worse in the short term and in the long. The US is technically bankrupt and in a state of chronic decline. Things are much worse then we've been told. Most banks are broke and no amount of bailout exists to help them. We will never see the economy return even to what it was in 2007, let alone better. Consumer prices will continue to drop for the rest of the year, then they'll start going up. China will stop taking our worthless treasury bills and inflation will hit big. There will be food shortages and riots, and Rihanna will have to get beaten on a daily basis to distract us from all this.

 

[Farzin]

^What he said.

Basically the US is throwing money they don't have at a problem that started by non existing money being thrown around. The solution is the problem. This might work in the short term by giving the economy a jolt through creating jobs but it doesn't fix the problem. It might fix this recession but a depression will be imminent.

 

[Jacob]

It will get worse in the short term and in the long. The US is technically bankrupt and in a state of chronic decline. Things are much worse then we've been told. Most banks are broke and no amount of bailout exists to help them. We will never see the economy return even to what it was in 2007, let alone better. Consumer prices will continue to drop for the rest of the year, then they'll start going up. China will stop taking our worthless treasury bills and inflation will hit big. There will be food shortages. And Rihanna will get beaten on a daily basis to distract us from all this.

Unfortunately, this seems to be pretty close to being the consensus among market analysts. Some macroeconomists are still optimistic, but I've yet to see them present an argument that goes beyond "people thought that the 1973/81/91 recession was the end of the world, and it wasn't -- so this one isn't either."

Brilliant.

 

[yak pac fatal]

hell na, only gonna get worse and nwo sets in

 

[vg4030]

Unfortunately, this seems to be pretty close to being the consensus among market analysts. Some macroeconomists are still optimistic, but I've yet to see them present an argument that goes beyond "people thought that the 1973/81/91 recession was the end of the world, and it wasn't -- so this one isn't either."

Brilliant.

Right.

All of this also leads to more protectionism.. which helps no one.. all of these macroeconomists have a misguided Keynesian attitude which I really dont get.

I cant believe that people are so short sighted.. especially with this 'buy america' bullshit

All of these attempts to ‘manage’ the market are gonna lead to the same problems the US faced in the 70’s and will make the recession last longer. Even though its not strictly protectionist per-se they will have subtle effects on worldwide economic integration. Most of the new regulations will be used to alienate india and china further from integrating with the west. Especially in terms of financial services, as they are normally first to suffer. Then for manufacturing, I bet you that most of the protectionism will be in the form of ‘emission’ standards that poorer countries simply cannot afford to comply with.. which of course means they cannot do business with the US until they do..

Anyway I digress…. Basically.. the Stimulus will cause inflation..why?.. because someone is going to have to pay for all of this debt that Obama is taking on and China will only take on so much..right now they get good returns on 10 year notes (about 3%) so congress is happy that it can finance itself on this cheap credit. But in 6 months or a years time it wont be so cheap.. then what?? As the worldwide economy drops to shit.. they wont get such good return on the t bills.. The reciprocal world the US has lived in wont be so forever.. China could hold the bills and keeps their exports cheap and fund the US standard of living.. but the US cant keep the deficit so big forever.. once china runs out of money then the cycle is broken and the US is fucked. What I don’t get is why the US hasn’t noticed this??... China and Japan are in a crisis too so they cant afford to keep buys the US debt.
So, interst rates will increase and the drop in demand for t bills will increase borrowing costs.. credit for the entire economy will become more expensive making the recession even worse..

All of this will lead to printing money.. shit loads of it… the fed even said they are thinking of buying longer term t bills to support the market.. they already did this after last years crash and inflation wasn’t so bad but it wont last. When all of this happened in the 70’s inflation went up to 15%!!.. Just wait.. just like the 70’s there is going to be huge stagflation (the fed will create more money than we can use) CPI will go through the roof!!!!!