COLD WINTER ON THE WAY
Prepare to wrap up warm - weather forecasters are warning that this winter may be the coldest for 10 years.
Following a run of mild winters, the Met Office has said its latest predictions indicate a colder season across Europe.
It said: "The balance of probability is for a winter colder than those experienced since 1995/96.
"Using a traffic light analogy, we consider that people should be on amber alert for the prospect of a colder-than-average winter."
Models used to try to estimate long-term trends include pattern matching, which looks at weather over a year, compares it to other years and makes a prediction based on historic performance.
Another model is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which measures the temperature of the sea to see if it is colder or warmer than normal.
Some forecasters have played down the predictions, saying that it is still too early to look too far ahead.
A PA WeatherCentre spokesman said: "Pattern matching suggests that the weather always follows certain cycles - sometimes that works and sometimes it doesn't.
"It is not possible to predict that far ahead."
"Our weather is driven by the ocean," he added. "This year the NAO is forecast to be negative. Generally, this should lead to a colder winter but again that is not foolproof. Last winter the NAO was briefly negative and it was a mild winter."
A dramatically cold winter could put thousands of lives at risk.
For every degree the mercury drops below the winter average, 8,000 people could die in the UK, according to energy supplier npower.
The Government has said a major cause of death will be an inability to afford proper heating.
Prepare to wrap up warm - weather forecasters are warning that this winter may be the coldest for 10 years.
Following a run of mild winters, the Met Office has said its latest predictions indicate a colder season across Europe.
It said: "The balance of probability is for a winter colder than those experienced since 1995/96.
"Using a traffic light analogy, we consider that people should be on amber alert for the prospect of a colder-than-average winter."
Models used to try to estimate long-term trends include pattern matching, which looks at weather over a year, compares it to other years and makes a prediction based on historic performance.
Another model is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which measures the temperature of the sea to see if it is colder or warmer than normal.
Some forecasters have played down the predictions, saying that it is still too early to look too far ahead.
A PA WeatherCentre spokesman said: "Pattern matching suggests that the weather always follows certain cycles - sometimes that works and sometimes it doesn't.
"It is not possible to predict that far ahead."
"Our weather is driven by the ocean," he added. "This year the NAO is forecast to be negative. Generally, this should lead to a colder winter but again that is not foolproof. Last winter the NAO was briefly negative and it was a mild winter."
A dramatically cold winter could put thousands of lives at risk.
For every degree the mercury drops below the winter average, 8,000 people could die in the UK, according to energy supplier npower.
The Government has said a major cause of death will be an inability to afford proper heating.
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