I believe the scenario you described is highly realistic. i don't consider myself among those politically knowledgable people whose opinions you sought, so that's not an opinion based upon knowledge, but what i can tell you is that my opinion is probably worth just as much as that of any expert. why? because this is not a problem that we as a modern human society have had to deal with in the past. any guess is as good as any other. taking into account what you know about the human species, you could ask yourself what you think people are gonna do immediately after any sort of governing authority becomes obsolete. if you can steal instead of purchase and get away with it, why even consider purchasing? the western countries on the northern hemisphere are all gonna be set back to the stone age. essentially we'll all be developing countries. norway, which today is one of the richest countries in the world, is gonna become another third world country.
i am seriously considering getting a real citizenship in another country now already, so i'm sure there won't be any problems in the future if global warming kicks off lol. i really don't speculate a lot on this because i have already become one with the notion that global warming will cause mass riots, famine and lots and lots of death.
i'm like you, i feel that most of humankind deserves it, it just sucks that i happen to live in one of the areas that are gonna feel it. this is a fucked up thing to say, but most people in the third world already live under such fucked circumstances that the change will be a lot smaller for them maybe. some third world citizens may even feel a rise in their life quality. the western world is probably gonna cease to be a thing that we have a name for ("the western world") when global warming becomes reality.
these are all my own speculations though. you're right, your title's no good because it is an issue that i would say is seperate from the peace situation in the world today. something that involves the middle east somehow is waiting to happen, and since the middle east is a region where so many countries are involved in so many ways and there are so many shady and/or intricate relationships rooted in the middle east, it's safe to say that there are a lot of potential problems that could arise if one of the middle eastern countries decide to take matters into their own hands. basically i don't think a third world war in the middle-eastern region and around it is something we should immediately dismiss. i don't really have a lot of hard facts on the various situations in the various countries down there, i just know there is a lot of turbulence.
