According to its executive producers, the premise behind Shaq's Bigger Challenge had nothing to do with finding out how much the Phoenix Suns could lose.
But based on Shaquille O'Neal's first seven games, the Suns' chances of rising to a championship level seem thinner than anticipated. With reflex actions occurring all over their city, many otherwise well-wishing observers are concerned about this team disappearing from the playoff landscape.
The circuitous Phoenix-area perspective on this Shaq acquisition may be defined by the decision-making protocols contained in Malcolm Gladwell's best-selling book Blink, which — in a regrettably brief nutshell — encourages readers to trust their gut instincts. When the Shawn Marion-and-Marcus Banks-for-O'Neal deal was first proposed, Arizona sports-talk radio hosts estimated the negative feedback at around 80 percent.
How could the aging, injured and plodding center — just two years removed from winning a ring in Miami — fit in Coach Mike D'Antoni's warp-speed offensive system? How could the system flourish without Marion? Is a team that believed it was one playoff-game suspension away from reaching the Finals last season giving up on its basketball philosophy?
But it didn't take long for O'Neal's personality and promise of rejuvenation — teaming up with encouraging testimony from new coaches and teammates — to dramatically swing public opinion.
By the time the hated Los Angeles Lakers rolled into Phoenix for Shaq's first game as a Sun, local supporters were convinced that O'Neal would provide the inside muscle we assume is acquired to win a championship.
Please note that despite Tuesday's survival win at Portland, the assimilation process still seems to have hit a few snags. Before taking a hard look at what's gone wrong on game nights, let's visit the statistical evidence.
We'll begin with defense, which was expected to be upgraded thanks to Shaq's presence as goalie. Before the trade, opposing post players were having alarming success against mild low-block-area resistance put up by Amare Stoudemire.
However, those who were seduced by O'Neal's boyish charms failed to notice that Marion had been the Suns' most versatile (if not best) perimeter defender. At 6-foot-7, Marion was able to defend three positions at a high level of effectiveness, rebound like a power forward and run the fast-break lanes with the swiftness of a guard.
(Unfortunately, Marion's reluctance to go quietly through his career as the third wheel helped make this trade a reality.)
In seven games with O'Neal clogging the lane, the Suns are giving up 109.5 points per game; that's five more points than they surrendered with Marion and — over the course of a season — would have them screaming into last place in the NBA. This average includes an incongruous 77-point flop from the Boston Celtics.
Four of the teams Shaq and the Suns have encountered shot considerably better than 50 percent from the field. It should be noted that O'Neal defended the rim like a beast in the fourth quarter of a team-wide defensive stand at Portland, where a sizzling 60-point Phoenix first half was followed by a 37-point second half; the fourth-quarter chill included six free throws by Steve Nash off desperation fouls.
At least the bitter concern of rebounding has lessened, with the Suns winning the board battle in five of the seven games. O'Neal had 13 boards against the Blazers.
Since O'Neal's arrival, the Suns — mostly due to Stoudemire's freedom to roam from the power forward slot — have improved in field-goal accuracy, making 49 percent of their shots; for the season, they're sniping at a 46-percent success rate. But their per-game scoring average is down about five points, suggesting that Shaq — with help from the Celtics and Detroit Pistons — has caused the pace to downshift a bit.
Those quick to accuse O'Neal of wrecking the Suns' ballyhooed spacing and flow failed to notice that this was an issue while Marion was still on board. Thanks to colder-than-historically-usual perimeter shooting from Leandro Barbosa (39 percent) and Raja Bell (37 percent) — who were joined this season on the perimeter by mid-ranger Grant Hill — the Suns' lack of deep-shooting success had allowed defenses to squeeze the middle a bit more.
The only problem posed by O'Neal has been a strategic flaw by D'Antoni, who — prior to the game in Portland — had used Shaq much more as an on-ball screener than post-up guy thus far; as a screener, O'Neal poses no pick-and-pop threat and lacks the agility to dive, catch and flush. Defensive rotations are easier when O'Neal is rolling after a trail screen for Nash than they are with Stoudemire involved.
The allegedly critical plus-minus stat — with its dangerously incomplete variables — reveals that the Suns are operating at a combined -20 points with O'Neal on the floor over his first seven games (although his plus-12 was the Suns' highest against the Blazers). While he has plenty of negative company with his new teammates, for perspective, it should be noted that Steve Nash is a less-awful -3 during the same span.
We've now reached the point in our program where Shaq is absolved of at least some of the doomsday-autopsy concerns. For example, Suns watchdogs have credited O'Neal's presence with eliminating the driving lanes on offense that allowed Nash to work his assisting magic. This, according to the critics, has provoked an average of four turnovers per game from the point guard with Shaq in tow.
But a look at the numbers reminds us that Nash is credited with 33 turnovers in the Suns' final six games before O'Neal suited up against the Lakers.
Perhaps Nash's less-than-MVP-like efforts are more a function of Nash issues or teammate-movement-success issues than O'Neal issues. Shaq certainly shouldn't be credited with the matador performances on defense from Nash, who — when joined by Barbosa, Boris Diaw, Stoudemire and O'Neal — give Phoenix five sub-par defenders among their top seven players.
As a unit, they coughed up 119 points to a Philadelphia team that was playing its second road game in as many nights. This inability or unwillingness to stop the opposition inspired the following post-game comment from D'Antoni:
"At some point, we're going to have to play some defense sometime."
Without Marion, an already-suspect defensive perimeter is even less equipped to use the shot clock as an ally in pressuring the ball, choking the passing lanes and creating a pace that juices the Suns' offense.
Before the gut-check at Portland, the recent ease of their defensive surrender had caused D'Antoni to question his team's effort and remind everyone that having a soft reputation should not require his players to continue playing that way.
"We're trying to figure things out without putting in the necessary effort," he said.
This condemnation should not fall on the doorstep of O'Neal, even though Shaq has yet to fulfill that loud promise to make his new teammates better and teach them how to play at a championship level. Although the 7-foot-2, 320-pound center seems a bit fitter than even he expected to be, Shaq has lost the explosiveness that made him a dominant player. He still must prove he can walk at least part of the talk.
For the moment, the fluid battle cry around Phoenix — especially inside the franchise — is that the Suns are wise and talented enough to figure things out in time for O'Neal to be a force during the slower-paced playoff rounds.
While it would be foolish to dismiss great players like Nash, Stoudemire and their buddies after seven games, it also should be noted that the Western Conference offers little margin for temporary error.
And if it doesn't quite work out this season, the Suns' next big challenge will be avoiding future losses with Shaq eating up their cap space.
